Artikel-Schlagworte: „hypotheses“

The widespread ability to precognize is surely something worth to explore scientifically. If it exists, the researcher who publishes a positive outcome will achieve eternal fame :-). Now, the JPSP will publish a study who tries to validate human’s capability to precognize. A preprint of the experimental study of Bem is available here. 9 experiments were performed with about 1000 participants – quite a huge undertaking! And in 8 of 9 of them it seems that precongition exists. But before you think now that you can also precnogize and go to the next casino and lose your money, let us review how this research was realized. Two articles critizise the original study: One on methodological grounds (Wagenmakers et al) and the other by doing a replication (Galak & Nelson). The replication study failed and Wagenmakers et al. come to the conclusion that the problems of the study of Bem are not related to the fact whether precognition is possible or not but due to the fact that the underlying method was not properly realized. Read for yourself. I think it is worth to mention also that the methodological review uses Bayesian methodology.